Steven A. Cook Recounts the Failure of the Middle East Uprisings in New Book, “False Dawn”

Welcome to the Daily News Brief, CFR’s flagship morning newsletter summarizing the top global news and analysis of the day.  Subscribe to the Daily News Brief to receive it every weekday morning. Top of the Agenda U.S. and Iranian negotiators are meeting in Rome today for their fifth round of nuclear talks. The two sides have clashed in public comments about uranium enrichment in recent days, but a U.S. State Department spokesperson said yesterday that the meeting “would not be happening if we didn’t think that there was potential for it.” The U.S. is being represented by Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and the State Department’s Policy Planning Director Michael Anton, and Iran by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. What the parties are saying. The most recent friction was triggered by Witkoff describing a U.S. “red line” last Sunday that Iran should not be able to have “even 1 percent of an enrichment capability.” In prior weeks, some U.S. officials had suggested they might be able to accept a low level of enrichment.  Multiple Iranian officials publicly rejected the zero-enrichment position. The strict anti-enrichment comments from U.S. officials intensified after more than two hundred Republican lawmakers wrote a letter on May 14 calling for such a stance. Araghchi posted on social media yesterday that “zero nuclear weapons” meant there was a deal, while “zero enrichment” meant no deal. U.S. President Donald Trump “wants to see a deal with Iran struck, if one can be struck,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said yesterday. The regional backdrop. Israel is considering striking Iran militarily, multiple news outlets have reported. Trump discussed Iran with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on a call yesterday, Leavitt said, adding that Trump asserted Washington seeks a deal with Iran. Araghchi wrote in a letter publicized by Iran’s mission to the United Nations yesterday that if Israel strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran would consider the United States responsible. If Israel continues to threaten Iran, he wrote, Iran would take unspecified steps to protect its nuclear materials. Trump has also threatened U.S. military strikes on Iran if talks fail.  “On a macro level, the two important Iranian objectives in these talks are they want to avert another military attack on their nuclear facilities, [and] they want to avert another maximum pressure economic campaign…I think an interim deal or a smaller deal is going to be a much easier political lift in both Washington and in Tehran.” —The Carnegie Endowment’s Karim Sadjadpour tells The President’s Inbox Across the Globe Ban on Harvard international students. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) revoked Harvard’s permission to enroll international students, saying the school did not provide the government requested records of student conduct. DHS said the school had created a “hostile” environment for Jewish students. Harvard called the action “unlawful.” Foreign students make up around 27 percent of the student body; the university’s director of media relations say they “enrich the university—and this nation—immeasurably.” Charges in DC shooting. The U.S. Justice Department filed federal murder charges against the suspect in Wednesday’s killings of two Israeli embassy staffers in Washington, D.C. Elias Rodriguez confessed to the killings, police said. Investigators are also considering hate crime and terrorism charges. Representatives of Jewish organizations called for more government funding for their safety in the wake of the attack, which comes amid a rise of antisemitic incidents in the United States and around the world following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in 2023.  Tracking the great tech race. A new study by European research center Bruegel examined patents to measure the relative progress of China, the European Union (EU), and the United States on the research frontier of three critical technologies: quantum computing, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence (AI). It concluded that U.S. actors dominate innovation in quantum computing and, to a lesser extent, AI, while Chinese actors are ahead in semiconductors, and the EU lags in all three. U.S. weighs troops in South Korea. The Trump administration is consideringpulling thousands of troops out of South Korea, unnamed sources told the Wall Street Journal. In one reported scenario, roughly 4,500 troops would depart for other parts of the Indo-Pacific, including Guam. A Pentagon spokesperson said there were no policy announcements to make, South Korea’s defense ministry declined to comment, and South Korea’s military said it had not discussed a troop reduction with Washington. U.S. sanctions on Sudan. The United States determined the Sudanese army used chemical weapons in the country’s civil war last year and will impose new sanctions on Sudan beginning on or around June 6, the State Department said yesterday. Sudan’s government responded that the measure “lacks any moral or legal basis.” The announcement did not specify which weapons were used or where; unnamed U.S. officials told the New York Times in January that Sudan’s army appeared to have used chlorine gas in remote parts of the country.   North Korea warship damaged. In an unusual acknowledgement of a military malfunction, North Korean state media reported yesterday that the country’s second naval destroyer was damaged during its launch event. Seawater flowed into the ship, state media said today. Satellites showed that North Korea placed a cover over the partially submerged ship, which Pyongyang had reportedly rushed to complete. Aid distributed in Gaza. Humanitarian aid reached warehouses inside Gaza for the first time in eleven weeks, UN agencies said yesterday. The aid included flour and baby food. Twenty-nine children and elderly people in the territory died from “starvation-related” causes in the last few days, the Palestinian Authority health minister stated yesterday. Israel said 107 aid trucks crossed the border into Gaza yesterday, while UN agencies say an estimated 600 per day are needed to address the territory’s humanitarian crisis.  UK deal on Chagos Islands base. The United Kingdom (UK) reached a deal with Mauritius—its former colony—to give up its claim over the disputed Chagos Islands and pay Mauritius some $136 million per year to lease the area that houses a U.S.-UK military base. The UK separated the Chagos Islands from Mauritius in 1965, shortly before Mauritius gained independence. What’s Next Today, India’s foreign minister is visiting Germany. On Sunday, French President Emmanuel Macron begins a visit to Vietnam, Indonesia, and Singapore. On Sunday, Suriname holds a general election and Venezuela holds legislative and regional elections. On Monday, an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders summit begins in Malaysia. On Monday, the African Development Bank begins its annual meetings in Ivory Coast.

Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies and former ambassador Michelle Gavin breaks down the tense U.S.-South Africa meeting at the White House. 

President Trump suggested after the call that the United States could “back away” if Russia and Ukraine peace talks don’t advance. That could leave it to Europe to keep Ukraine in the fight.