Conflict Between India and Pakistan
A deadly militant attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, has triggered a sharp escalation between India and Pakistan, with both sides exchanging gunfire across the Line of Control and downgrading diplomatic ties. On May 6, India announced the launch of "Operation Sindoor," targeting nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir, which it alleged were used to plan the attacks. The situation has heightened fears of a broader military conflict between the two nuclear-armed nations, marking the most significant bilateral confrontation since 2019.
The conflict between India and Pakistan arose out of the 1947 Partition of British India. The Partition established a Muslim-majority Pakistan and a Hindu-majority India and provided the diverse regions of Jammu and Kashmir the opportunity to choose which country to accede to. The maharaja (Kashmir’s monarch) initially sought independence, as Kashmir was neglected and subjugated for centuries by conquering empires. However, he ultimately agreed to join India in exchange for help against invading Pakistani herders, triggering the Indo-Pakistani War of 1947-48. The Karachi Agreement of 1949 temporarily ended violence in the Jammu-Kashmir region by establishing a cease-fire line (CFL) overseen by members of a UN truce subcommittee.
Tensions simmered until a skirmish between border controls escalated to a full-blown war in 1965. In 1971, India and Pakistan fought another brief war over East Pakistan, with Indian forces helping the territory gain independence, resulting in the establishment of present-day Bangladesh. India and Pakistan attempted to usher in a new era of bilateral relations with the 1972 Simla Agreement, which established the Line of Control (LOC). This provisional military control line split Kashmir into two administrative regions. However, in 1974, the conflict took on a new dimension with the introduction of nuclear weapons, raising the stakes of any confrontation. That year, India tested its first nuclear weapon, triggering a nuclear arms race that would see Pakistan reach that same milestone two decades later.
In 1989, Pakistan capitalized upon a burgeoning resistance movement in Indian-administered Kashmir to undermine Indian control, reigniting tensions and beginning decades of communal violence. Despite a recommitment to the LOC in 1999, Pakistani soldiers crossed the LOC, sparking the Kargil War. Although both countries have maintained a fragile cease-fire since 2003, they regularly exchange fire across the contested border. Both sides accuse the other of violating the cease-fire and claim to be shooting in response to attacks.
On November 26, 2008, fears that India and Pakistan would once again head towards direct military confrontation rose after militants laid siege to the Indian capital of Mumbai. Over three days, 166 people were killed, including 6 Americans. Both India and the United States blamed the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a militant group with alleged ties to the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)—Pakistan’s primary intelligence agency—for perpetrating the attack. The Indian government cooperated with the Pakistani government to bring the perpetrators to justice, paving the way for improved relations.
In 2014, many hoped India would pursue meaningful peace negotiations with Pakistan after India’s newly elected Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, invited Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to attend his inauguration. After a brief period of optimism, relations soured in August 2014 when India canceled talks with Pakistan’s foreign minister after the Pakistani high commissioner in India met with Kashmiri separatist leaders.
Momentum toward meaningful talks halted in September 2016, when armed militants attacked a remote Indian Army base in Uri, near the LOC, killing eighteen Indian soldiers in the deadliest attack on the Indian armed forces in decades. Indian officials accused Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), another group with alleged ties to ISI, of conducting the attack. In response, the Indian military announced it had carried out “surgical strikes” on terrorist camps inside Pakistani-administered Kashmir. In contrast, the Pakistani military denied that any such operation had taken place.
This period was marked by an uptick in border skirmishes that began in late 2016 and continued into 2018, killing dozens and displacing thousands of civilians on both sides of the Line of Control. More than three thousand cross-border strikes were reported in 2017, while nearly one thousand were reported in the first half of 2018. Militants launched attacks in October 2017 against an Indian paramilitary camp near Srinagar and, in February 2018, against an Indian army base in the Jammu region, which killed five soldiers and a civilian. During this time, violent demonstrations and anti-India protests calling for an independent Kashmir also continued. Over three hundred people, including civilians, Indian security forces, and militants, were killed in attacks and clashes in 2017. After months of Indian military operations targeting both Kashmiri militants and demonstrations, India announced in May 2018 that it would observe a cease-fire in Kashmir during the month of Ramadan for the first time in nearly two decades; operations resumed in June 2018. Later in May, India and Pakistan formally agreed to a cease-fire along the disputed Kashmir border that would restore the terms of their 2003 agreement.
In February 2019, an attack on a convoy of Indian paramilitary forces in Pulwama, Indian-administered Kashmir, killed at least forty soldiers. The attack, claimed by the Pakistani militant group JeM, was the deadliest in Kashmir in three decades. India retaliated with an air strike targeting terrorist training camps within Pakistani territory, which was followed by Pakistani air strikes on Indian-administered Kashmir. The exchange escalated into an aerial engagement, during which Pakistan shot down two Indian military aircraft and captured an Indian pilot; the pilot was released two days later.
In August 2019, following a deployment of tens of thousands of additional troops and paramilitary forces to the region, the Indian government moved to revoke Article 370 of the Indian constitution. The change removed Jammu and Kashmir’s special status, forcing Kashmiris to abide by Indian property and customary law and effectively diminishing their autonomy. The ruling not only angered Kashmiris but was also viewed as a “grave injustice” by Pakistan. The removal of Article 370 signified the more aggressive approach of the Modi government to integrate Kashmir into India through a doctrine of Hindu nationalism.
Following the revocation of Article 370, India-administered Kashmir remained under lockdown for over a year, with internet and phone services intermittently cut off and thousands of people detained. In 2022 and 2023, the Indian central government cracked down on independent media in the region, redrew the electoral map to privilege Hindu-majority areas in Kashmir, and held a G20 tourism meeting in Srinagar.
Targeted killings against Hindus have become more frequent, motivating some to flee and protest government policies. In response to the uptick in violence, the Modi government has taken an increasingly militarized response. Deadly clashes between Indian and Pakistani forces also persisted in 2023.
Throughout 2024, violence continued in Kashmir in response to increasing efforts by New Delhi to consolidate territorial control. Attacks specifically targeted Indian travelers and workers in the region. In June 2024, militants opened fire on a bus carrying pilgrims traveling to a Hindu shrine in the town of Reasi. The attack killed nine and injured over thirty. In October, militants killed seven in Kashmir at a construction site for a tunnel project connecting Kashmir to the northern region of Ladakh.
On April 22, 2025, tensions escalated after militants attacked Indian tourists in Kashmir, killing twenty-five Indian nationals and one Nepalese national. The incident marked the deadliest terrorist attack in Indian territory since the 2008 Mumbai attacks. India blamed Pakistan for harboring the group responsible for the attack and arrested two Pakistani nationals as suspects. Pakistan denied any involvement, and its defense ministry even suggested the attack was a “false flag operation.” Although no group has been officially identified as responsible for the attack, the Kashmir Resistance—an offshoot of LeT—claimed responsibility online.
In the wake of the attack, tit-for-tat measures by India and Pakistan have driven bilateral relations to their lowest point in recent years. New Delhi first took measures to downgrade ties with Pakistan, suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, terminating a visa-free travel regime with Pakistan, and closing the Attari border crossing between the two countries. In turn, Pakistan rejected the suspension of the water treaty, warning that any attempts to alter Pakistan’s Indus River flows would be considered “an act of war.” Islamabad also moved to close Pakistani airspace to all Indian commercial airlines, halted a special visa regime for Indian citizens, and suspended bilateral trade.
Indian and Pakistani forces have exchanged fire across the LOC every day since the attack. The United States and China have called for de-escalation, with Beijing advocating for an independent investigation into the attack and its suspects. Islamabad and New Delhi have since traded military threats, with India’s navy testing long-range missiles. On April 28, Pakistan’s defense ministry expressed belief that an Indian military attack on Pakistani territory was “imminent” and that the Pakistan military was preparing reinforcements. Meanwhile, India has launched a crackdown in Kashmir, as Indian security forces have arrested over 1,500 Kashmiris and demolished homes of suspected militants.
